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I don’t understand the Smart Factor for the games. Could you please explain?

 

QUESTION:  I don’t understand the Smart Factor for the games. For example: “In the money” and “Maximum Payout” are both $20.00 games. This week, “In the Money” has a SmartFactor of 1.628 while “Maximum Payout” has a 9.645 SmartFactor. Could you please explain?

The SmartFactor calculation is exactly like a card count when counting cards in Black Jack.  Card counters keep track of the number of ‘good cards’ (aces, face cards & 10s) remaining in a deck as a deck is played over time.  The higher the card count, the better the odds are of playing a hand and getting a 21 combination. In this case, the deck is considered “Hot”.   The lower the card count, the lower the odds are of getting a 21 or blackjack combination.  In this case, the deck is considered ‘cold’.   Card counting only works because there is a set number of cards in play to begin with = 52 and only 4 aces, 4 kings, 4 queens, 4 Jacks, 4 tens etc.  When the deck is first shuffled, there is an equal probability of getting any one of the cards,

However,  as cards are played in each hand, players can count the number of cards dealt and can remove those from the probability of getting those cards in the next hand being played.  Card counters simplify the count to being +1 or -1 for each of the best cards in the deck (Aces, Face Cards & 10s).  To oversimplify this – every time they see a good card, they subtract 1 from the count.  Every time they see a non-face card they add one to the count.  The higher the count the ‘hotter’ the deck because it’s a better probability of getting a good card in the next deal.

Card counting at a blackjack table ONLY works over time, so you have to sit and observe the table AND it only works if you know the total number of decks of cards in play.

Well, the exact same concept counts for scratch-off games, except you don’t have to do any of the calculations OR sit at a table losing money until you figure out if the deck is hot or cold.

The SmartFactor IS the card count.  We determine the total number of tickets printed by the data published on the lottery’s website.  Then we track the number of prizes awarded over time.  The proportion of Top Prizes remaining VS the Estimate Ticket sold gives us the SmartFactor rating.  The higher the SmartFactor, the better the odds of winning a top prize have changed in your favor!  The lower the SmartFactor rating, the worse your chances are of winning a top prize.

The key is to know the total number of tickets printed when the game starts.   You can read about that here: https://www.scratchsmarter.com/total-number-of-tickets-printed/

Is it possible for me to purchase the 1 year service, without the recurring charges?

The answer is “YES!”   Our site is 100% self-service.  All memberships are set up with a renewal automatically, but you can change that ANYTIME you want in our member’s area.
Please read this Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) that explain how it works:
After you cancel, your subscription will be in a ‘pending cancellation’ status. This FAQ explains why:

How can I check to see how many winners have won in a certain game and how many winners are left?

This type of data is usually available on your states lottery website, in fact, this is some of the key data we use to generate our reports, however, this limited data and only provides you part of the analysis that ScratchSmarter Best Games to Play reports provide you.

The information for how many TOP prizes remaining exist for a particular game is available in Report #4 on your weekly subscription.  This lists the total number of top prizes available for any active game in your state and is sorted from Highest number of top prizes remaining to lowest.

We think there’s a smarter way to buy tickets – it’s our SmartFactor rating where we calculate the prizes remaining for the top three prizes for every game vs the estimate total number tickets remaining.  This calculation tells you, without a doubt, where the odds of winning a top prize has changed significantly in your favor.  The SmartFactor rating is the critical formula for Report #1 and Report #2 in our Best Games to Play weekly analysis.

Get your report today!  https://www.scratchsmarter.com/shop

 

Can’t I just do this analysis on my own?

Yes, you can, if you have the time and the discipline!

We have taken years to build and perfect our database to analyze scratch off games.

At the same time, we’ve invested a lot of money to write custom code to gather all of the data for EVERY GAME on your state’s lottery website.  And we invest in continuing to update this code as the lottery websites change how they publish their data!

For some states, we’ve taken the time to develop our Freedom of Information request process with the state lotteries office.

So, if you know exactly what data to collect to do card card counting, it would still take the average person 3 to 4 hours just to gather the data on every game and put it into a spreadsheet to analyze it. Then, it takes another hour or two to analyze the data to figure out which is the Best Game to Play.

That’s a total of a 4 to 6 hours EVERY TIME you want to analyze the data just to go scratch off a few games!   And hopefully, you didn’t make any mistakes in all of that hard work you just did!

Our reports cost just 38 cents a week and we do all of this work for you!  This includes all of our data quality checks and our perfected card counting algorithm.  Really, it’s just 38 CENTS every week if you subscribe for a year!

You would have to earn LESS than 9 cents an HOUR to make it worth your while to do this analysis yourself! 

Our reports pay for themselves the very first time you use them because we help you avoid the games that aren’t worth playing!

Quite frankly, we can’t understand why anyone WOULD NOT subscribe today!

My lottery retailer said that your Top Game isn’t for sale any more – why is it still on your reports?

Just because a Lottery Retailer doesn’t have the game for sale doesn’t mean it isn’t for sale somewhere in the state!   Retailers only make about 5% on the sale of a scratch off ticket.  In other words, selling scratch off tickets is a waste of their time.  They want you to just pick from what they have in stock and go buy something else in their store!

Yes, some games do get pulled from the retailers early, but the reason ‘why’ will probably surprise you!

Read more about WHY you might not be able to find the top game here.  Then, decide for yourself if you just want to waste your money on any game the lottery and your retailer wants you to play, or if you’re ready to really try to win big and start Scratching Smarter!

Is this for real?

 

Yes our reports are REAL!!

Here’s why:

Scratch off games are printed off in groups with a specific number of tickets and very specific parameters for each game.  We gather and track this critical data for every game, including:

  • Game name
  • Game number
  • Release date / Start Date
  • End date / Last date to claim as prize
  • Overall odds
  • Detailed odds for each prize level
  • Prizes claimed / Prizes awarded
  • Total number of tickets printed

If you have all of this data and keep it updated every day, you can calculate how many tickets are remaining for every game.  Then we use our algorithm to compare the total prizes remaining vs the original top prize odds.  Our algorithm is simplified  into a ‘SmartFactor’ rating for every game and we update that every week in our reports.  Our SmartFactor rating makes it easier to compare all games and identify when a games odds have changed (for better or worse) on the chances of winning a top prize.

We work extremely hard to track, gather, update and analyze all of this data so we can simplify it and report it to our subscribers in our Best Games to Play report.

 

Do you provide any free reports?

 

We provide an easy to use “top prizes remaining’ webpage for every state, but our paid subscriptions are much better!

Why? Knowing the Top Prizes remaining only really matters if the top prize remaining is ZERO!  Even if there is only one top prize remaining for a game, that doesn’t tell you much because you don’t know how many tickets of that game have been sold.  Is it ONE top prize with only 1000 tickets left for sale?  If so – we would BUY THE HECK out of that game!

Look up your state here and find our FREE report for your state – updated every day!