Tag Archives: PA

Pennsylvania Top Games Analysis (2015-05-29)

Here’s the logic to how PA Happy Mother’s Day #1134 is at the top of our analysis:

The numbers in the Table 1 were taken from the PA website on 5/29/2015, while the numbers in the Table 2 are from the ScratchSmarter algorithm database.

 
GAMEGAME NUMBERPRIZEPRIZES REMAININGPRIZES CLAIMEDPRIZES AVAILABLE% REMAINING
Happy Mother's Day113450000371030.0%
Happy Mother's Day113410001811713513.3%
Happy Mother's Day1134300616146759.0%
Happy Mother's Day1134100154416456 18,000 8.6%
Happy Mother's Day113475342633474 36,900 9.3%
Happy Mother's Day113430890681094 90,000 9.9%
TOTAL 13,958 131,762 145,720 9.6%
ScratchSmarter Factor3.13
Table 1

The ScratchSmarter Factor is ratio of top prizes remaining vs total prizes remaining.

In this case (3 / 10) / (13,958 / 145,720) = 3.13 Or 30.0% / 9.6%.

It shows that the ratio of top prizes available relative to how many were originally available is better than the same ratio for all prizes. Once the top prizes are won, this game will drop to 0 and be a red game.

Just to be clear, this isn’t a simple calculation to get to. Many people compare our reports to their state lottery webpage and state that we are just calling out the games that are near the end of the top prizes remaining.
But the truth is, we’re doing MUCH more than just re-publishing and re-ordering the State lotteries website. Have a look below – Our Algorithm simplifies all of the data we can collect. With it, we create the ScratchSmarter factor number. The higher the factor number the higher the game ends up in our rankings for that State.
(We don’t display the factor number on our regular reports because, honestly, its more simple to understand as a ranking where the highest Factor Number = the number 1 game to play and all other lower factor numbers are ranked descending according to their factor number.)

If you compare the top 10 games in the state, you can see why it is the top game.

STATEGAME_NAMEGAME_NUMBEROVERALL_RANKPRICE_RANKCOUNTRY_RANKEST_PC_SOLDFACTORpriceNUMBER_TICKETSPRIZES_TOPPRIZES_REMAINING_TOPPRIZESPRIZES_REMAININGLAST_SCRAPED
PAHappy Mother's Day1134111309040.0%3.192$5-103 1,225,720 13,958 5/29/2015
PAPot of Gold1125212478970.0%1.996$2 6,600,000 102 1,513,198 1,777 5/29/2015
PALightning Bucks1095314238580.0%1.424$1 12,000,000 204 2,519,270 28,239 5/29/2015
PATriple Cash1137424634870.0%1.361$1 12,000,000 3020 2,603,577 40,785 5/29/2015
PAThe Wizard of Oz™1133514805280.0%1.332$10 9,600,000 106 2,681,248 11,914 5/29/2015
PASuper Sizzling 7s1124624976270.0%1.31$5 7,800,000 157 1,833,892 77,973 5/29/2015
PACa$h Up1118715325870.0%1.272$3 9,600,000 105 2,261,163 3,450 5/29/2015
PAWild Cherries1143825662320.0%1.231$2 10,800,000 2018 2,429,210 27,399 5/29/2015
PAMoney Multiplier1140935713150.0%1.228$5 10,800,000 108 2,550,399 3,376 5/29/2015
PAScratch Some Cash11361035914800.0%1.213$2 10,800,000 2012 2,432,816 17,385 5/29/2015
Table 2

Your only challenge now, is finding any tickets still available for sale for that game.
We know this is a challenge, because in this case, we estimate that 90.4% of this games printed tickets have been sold, so the total number of tickets still available for sale are dwindling, fast.
If you can find any of them, you should play them because the chances of getting that ONE top prize for PA Happy Mother’s Day (#1134)  is FAR better than the odds of getting a top prize for any of the other games for sale in PA.

We’re basically counting cards for you and comparing which games are going to give you the very best chance of winning the top prize. For the last several weeks, it just happens to be #1134 for PA. And who knows, by this Friday, the PA Lottery website might be updated showing that the last top prize for #1134 has been claimed. As I said earlier, when this happens, the game will immediately go from Green to RED and will be on our do not play list.

And that is the REAL value of the ScratchSmarter Reports – we’re combining the very best Opportunities (rankings of the games) with a list of games you absolutely should not play – the games where there are no top prizes left. Because, what happens with our algorithm and the data is, VERY OFTEN, there are games for sale where there are very FEW top prizes remaining, but the game hasn’t sold many tickets. The lotteries will let those games on your retailers shelves for a LONG time (until the lottery makes it’s return on their investment), and then they’ll pull the games. Tens of thousands of people are out there buying tickets, hoping to win big, and never knowing that all of the top prizes are gone. Essentially, they’re being lied to.

The lotteries publish a LOT of tickets for a LOT of different games. I can’t tell you exactly which game will be the next big winner, but I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty what games are better to play relative to the other games for sale. And I can EASILY tell you which games you must NOT play.

Happy hunting.