Frequently Asked Questions

Check out some of the most frequently asked questions we receive.  Just click on the categories to see the common questions and our answers!

 

Pennsylvania Lottery (3)

PLEASE NOTE THIS QUESTION IS ONLY RELATIVE TO THIS WEEKS REPORT (10/5/18)

YES – if you can find this game, you should play it!  If you win on these games, the ticket is valid until the LAST DAY TO CLAIM, not the Game End date.  Read about these two important dates here: GAME END DATE vs LAST DATE TO CLAIM

THIS ANSWER IS TIME SENSITIVE AND ONLY APPLIES TO OUR PENNSYLVANIA REPORT FOR THE WEEK OF 10/5/18
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The quick answer is YES – we always account for ticket reprints. REPRINTS are one of the FIRST BIG SECRETS we discovered which led us to start ScratchSmarter.  We built our entire algorithm around this issue and have it fully integrated into our reporting process.
How do we account for it?  Its based on two things:  1) how we calculate the SmartFactor and 2) how we gather the data every day.
So, when the reprint occurs, the outstanding prizes is updated on the PA Lottery website.  We pull those numbers daily and add them to our database.  When we see the very top prize change from a low number to a higher number, it indicates a reprint.  Our SmartFactor value for that game will change, usually from a RED value to a higher red OR yellow value.  However over time, that game can potentially change to a green game, like  Extreme Green has done recently.    This is, after all, why the lottery did the reprint.  They want a hot selling game to continue selling and they can’t do it until the odds get better.
We count the top THREE prize levels in our Smart Factor algorithm.  NOT JUST the top prize level.  For extreme green this means there are:
5 top prizes left:
Top Six Prizes Wins Remaining
$3,000,000 2
$250,000 2
$50,000 1
Extreme green had a printing of 6,000,000 tickets.
This number of top prizes remaining at the top three levels is disproportionate for what is expected with the number of tickets remaining.  We estimate the total number of tickets remaining = 12.3% left (currently we’re showing 87.7 Est % sold).
6,000,000 tickets x 12.3% remaining = 738,000 tickets remaining.
The specific odds for these three prize levels are expressed in the game details as winnable in multiple different ways:
$50,000 w/ EXTREME $50,000 2,000,000 3
$50,000 $50,000 2,000,000 3
$50,000 w/ GREEN MATCH $250,000 600,000 10
$250,000 $250,000 600,000 10
$3,000,000 w/ $3 MILLION $3,000,000 2,000,000 3
$3,000,000 $3,000,000 3,000,000 2
Added up, the odds of winning any of the top prizes is:
31 prizes out of 6,000,000 tickets
(3+3+10+10+3+2)= 31
or 31 top prizes out of 6,000,000 tickets.
Today the odds of winning one of the top three prizes is 5 / 738,000 tickets remaining.
If the top prizes had evenly distributed over time, we would have expected only 12.3% of the top prizes remaining or 31 x 12.3% = less than 3.8 prizes.
There are 5 top prizes left which is better than 3.8, which means the odds have changed for the better for winning a top prize.

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