Author Archives: Dave

Pennsylvania Top Games Analysis (2015-05-29)

Here’s the logic to how PA Happy Mother’s Day #1134 is at the top of our analysis:

The numbers in the Table 1 were taken from the PA website on 5/29/2015, while the numbers in the Table 2 are from the ScratchSmarter algorithm database.

 





	GAMEGAME NUMBERPRIZEPRIZES REMAININGPRIZES CLAIMEDPRIZES AVAILABLE% REMAINING






	Happy Mother's Day113450000371030.0%




	Happy Mother's Day113410001811713513.3%




	Happy Mother's Day1134300616146759.0%




	Happy Mother's Day1134100154416456 18,000 8.6%




	Happy Mother's Day113475342633474 36,900 9.3%




	Happy Mother's Day113430890681094 90,000 9.9%




	TOTAL 13,958  131,762  145,720 9.6%




	ScratchSmarter Factor3.13
Table 1

The ScratchSmarter Factor is ratio of top prizes remaining vs total prizes remaining.

In this case (3 / 10) / (13,958 / 145,720) = 3.13 Or 30.0% / 9.6%.

It shows that the ratio of top prizes available relative to how many were originally available is better than the same ratio for all prizes. Once the top prizes are won, this game will drop to 0 and be a red game.

Just to be clear, this isn’t a simple calculation to get to. Many people compare our reports to their state lottery webpage and state that we are just calling out the games that are near the end of the top prizes remaining.
But the truth is, we’re doing MUCH more than just re-publishing and re-ordering the State lotteries website. Have a look below – Our Algorithm simplifies all of the data we can collect. With it, we create the ScratchSmarter factor number. The higher the factor number the higher the game ends up in our rankings for that State.
(We don’t display the factor number on our regular reports because, honestly, its more simple to understand as a ranking where the highest Factor Number = the number 1 game to play and all other lower factor numbers are ranked descending according to their factor number.)

If you compare the top 10 games in the state, you can see why it is the top game.





	STATEGAME_NAMEGAME_NUMBEROVERALL_RANKPRICE_RANKCOUNTRY_RANKEST_PC_SOLDFACTORpriceNUMBER_TICKETSPRIZES_TOPPRIZES_REMAINING_TOPPRIZESPRIZES_REMAININGLAST_SCRAPED






	PAHappy Mother's Day1134111309040.0%3.192$5-103 1,225,720  13,958 5/29/2015




	PAPot of Gold1125212478970.0%1.996$2 6,600,000 102 1,513,198  1,777 5/29/2015




	PALightning Bucks1095314238580.0%1.424$1 12,000,000 204 2,519,270  28,239 5/29/2015




	PATriple Cash1137424634870.0%1.361$1 12,000,000 3020 2,603,577  40,785 5/29/2015




	PAThe Wizard of Oz™1133514805280.0%1.332$10 9,600,000 106 2,681,248  11,914 5/29/2015




	PASuper Sizzling 7s1124624976270.0%1.31$5 7,800,000 157 1,833,892  77,973 5/29/2015




	PACa$h Up1118715325870.0%1.272$3 9,600,000 105 2,261,163  3,450 5/29/2015




	PAWild Cherries1143825662320.0%1.231$2 10,800,000 2018 2,429,210  27,399 5/29/2015




	PAMoney Multiplier1140935713150.0%1.228$5 10,800,000 108 2,550,399  3,376 5/29/2015




	PAScratch Some Cash11361035914800.0%1.213$2 10,800,000 2012 2,432,816  17,385 5/29/2015
Table 2

Your only challenge now, is finding any tickets still available for sale for that game.
We know this is a challenge, because in this case, we estimate that 90.4% of this games printed tickets have been sold, so the total number of tickets still available for sale are dwindling, fast.
If you can find any of them, you should play them because the chances of getting that ONE top prize for PA Happy Mother’s Day (#1134)  is FAR better than the odds of getting a top prize for any of the other games for sale in PA.

We’re basically counting cards for you and comparing which games are going to give you the very best chance of winning the top prize. For the last several weeks, it just happens to be #1134 for PA. And who knows, by this Friday, the PA Lottery website might be updated showing that the last top prize for #1134 has been claimed. As I said earlier, when this happens, the game will immediately go from Green to RED and will be on our do not play list.

And that is the REAL value of the ScratchSmarter Reports – we’re combining the very best Opportunities (rankings of the games) with a list of games you absolutely should not play – the games where there are no top prizes left. Because, what happens with our algorithm and the data is, VERY OFTEN, there are games for sale where there are very FEW top prizes remaining, but the game hasn’t sold many tickets. The lotteries will let those games on your retailers shelves for a LONG time (until the lottery makes it’s return on their investment), and then they’ll pull the games. Tens of thousands of people are out there buying tickets, hoping to win big, and never knowing that all of the top prizes are gone. Essentially, they’re being lied to.

The lotteries publish a LOT of tickets for a LOT of different games. I can’t tell you exactly which game will be the next big winner, but I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty what games are better to play relative to the other games for sale. And I can EASILY tell you which games you must NOT play.

Happy hunting.

California Top Game Analysis (2015-04-14)

We get a lot of questions from our subscribers, so we thought we’d start posting their questions and our responses here.  This week’s question came in from Rick in California.  Rick wriote:

For several weeks now your algorithm has been

suggesting that CA Lucky Life #1122 is the top

California scratcher game.

Yet, on the CA Lottery website it shows 5 of 6 of

the top prize of $3,250,000 has already been claimed,

and 11 of 12 of the next prize of $5,000 has already

been claimed, and 16 or 18 of the next prize of $1000

has already been claimed.

In fact, it appears that almost 90% of the prizes have

been claimed (see attached).

What am I failing to see here?

Respectfully,
Rick

 

Hi Rick,

Thanks for your question.  Here’s the logic to how CA Lucky Life #1122 is at the top of our analysis:

The numbers in the Table 1 were taken from the CA website on 4/14/2015, while the numbers in the Table 2 are from the ScratchSmarter algorithm database.

Our numbers were updated early in the morning and don’t exactly match as California Lottery updated their website since we ran our scraping engine. But they’re pretty close.

 





	GAMEGAME NUMBERPRIZEPRIZES REMAININGPRIZES CLAIMEDPRIZES AVAILABLE% REMAINING






	CA LUCKY LIFE1122 $3,250,000 15616.7%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122 $5,000 111128.3%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122 $1,000 2161811.1%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$500215 3,385  3,600 6.0%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$100 3,022  44,138  47,160 6.4%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$50 7,592  112,408  120,000 6.3%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$30 8,447  123,553  132,000 6.4%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$20 38,226  486,774  525,000 7.3%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$15 41,266  558,734  600,000 6.9%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$10 118,832  1,381,168  1,500,000 7.9%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$6 104,117  1,095,883  1,200,000 8.7%




	CA LUCKY LIFE1122$1 289,435  2,110,565  2,400,000 12.1%




	TOTAL 611,156  5,916,640  6,527,796 9.4%




	ScratchSmarter Factor1.78
Table 1

The ScratchSmarter Factor is ratio of top prizes remaining vs total prizes remaining.

In this case (1 / 6) / (612,502 / 6,527,796) = 1.78. Or 16.7% / 9.4%.

It shows that the ratio of top prizes available relative to how many were originally available is better than the same ratio for all prizes. Once that top prizes are won, this game will drop to 0 and be a red game.

Just to be clear, this isn’t a simple calculation to get to. Many people compare our reports to their state lottery webpage and state that we are just calling out the games that are near the end of the top prizes remaining. (Like this situation with #1122).
But the truth is, we’re doing MUCH more than just re-publishing and re-ordering the State lotteries website. Have a look below – Our Algorithm simplifies all of the data we can collect. With it, we create the ScratchSmarter factor number. The higher the factor number the higher the game ends up in our rankings for that State.
(We don’t display the factor number on our regular reports because, honestly, its more simple to understand as a ranking where the highest Factor Number = the number 1 game to play and all other lower factor numbers are ranked descending according to their factor number.)

I had the same situation happen to me here in PA when I started testing our algorithm 5 years ago. I had one game that just stayed in the top spot of our report for almost 4 months. It drove me NUTS because there was only one top prize left and I couldn’t find that game for sale anywhere. Since then, I’ve seen this situation happen a few more times, in every state. It’s just the lifecycle of some of the games. But, when you start to really look at all of the data, crunched & compared to all of the other games for sale, you’ll see this becomes a really powerful tool.

If you compare the top 10 games in the state, you can see why it is the top game.





	STATEGAME NAMEGAME NUMBEROVERALL RANKPRICE RANKCOUNTRY RANKESTIMATE % SOLDFACTORPRICEOVERALL ODDSNUMBER TICKETSPRIZES TOPPRIZES REMAINING TOPPRIZESPRIZES REMAININGLAST UPDATED






	CACA LUCKY LIFE11221127890.6%1.803$53.68 24,022,289 61 6,527,796  611,156 4/15/2015




	CAWHEEL OF FORTUNE®11272133381.9%1.639$24.34 20,414,262 175 4,703,747  852,511 4/15/2015




	CALUCKY HORSESHOES11423137461.9%1.533$33.76 19,592,649 3319 5,210,811  1,986,163 4/15/2015




	CAWHEEL OF FORTUNE®11284241179.7%1.471$53.60 20,422,195 175 5,672,832  1,153,225 4/15/2015




	CACA LUCKY LIFE11235146555.8%1.381$103.52 18,017,296 53 5,118,550  2,264,158 4/15/2015




	CAMEGA CROSSWORD11376349181.2%1.35$53.82 23,976,306 205 6,276,520  1,180,993 4/15/2015




	CACA LUCKY LIFE11207151187.2%1.315$14.50 36,002,043 122 13,533,909  1,734,883 4/15/2015




	CA7/11/202111418253476.3%1.286$24.26 18,122,700 309 4,254,155  1,006,219 4/15/2015




	CA10X THE CASH11619355325.1%1.266$24.09 17,752,592 3028 4,340,487  3,249,385 4/15/2015




	CAEMERALD 10's114410256641.8%1.252$103.50 16,793,794 75 4,798,227  2,793,364 4/15/2015
Table 2

Your only challenge now, is finding any tickets still available for sale for that game.
We know this is a challenge, because in this case, we estimate that 90.6% of this games printed tickets have been sold, so the total number of tickets still available for sale are dwindling, fast.
If you can find any of them, you should play them because the chances of getting that ONE top prize for CA Lucky Life (#1122) is FAR better than the odds of getting a top prize for any of the other games for sale in CA.

We’re basically counting cards for you and comparing which games are going to give you the very best chance of winning the top prize. For the last several weeks, it just happens to be #1122 for CA. And who knows, by this Friday, the CA Lottery website might be updated showing that the last top prize for #1122 has been claimed. As I said earlier, when this happens, the game will immediately go from Green to RED and will be on our do not play list.

And that is the REAL value of the ScratchSmarter Reports – we’re combining the very best Opportunities (rankings of the games) with a list of games you absolutely should not play – the games where there are no top prizes left. Because, what happens with our algorithm and the data is, VERY OFTEN, there are games for sale where there are very FEW top prizes remaining, but the game hasn’t sold many tickets. The lotteries will let those games on your retailers shelves for a LONG time (until the lottery makes it’s return on their investment), and then they’ll pull the games. Tens of thousands of people are out there buying tickets, hoping to win big, and never knowing that all of the top prizes are gone. Essentially, they’re being lied to.

The lotteries publish a LOT of tickets for a LOT of different games. I can’t tell you exactly which game will be the next big winner, but I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty what games are better to play relative to the other games for sale. And I can EASILY tell you which games you must NOT play.

Happy hunting.